Author: JayJay

Discover how global events — from wars to elections — can give you a hidden edge in forex and crypto trading.

Most traders stare at charts. The smart ones look at the world while staring at the charts. You never know a once in a life time opportunity may happen as it did yesterday for smart traders as the magnificent seven stocks gained 1.5 trillion dollars within a trading session after Trump’s announcement of a 90 days pause in global Tariffs. If you don't know, magnificent seven include NVIDIA, APPLE, TESLA, Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta.

Now just imagine you were trading and were betting on a continuity of the turmoil in the markets and you missed the announcement of tariff pause and boom, your all technical indicators ditched you until you found out what happened but its too little too late. Geopolitical events happen more often then we expect and hit markets harder than we think, trust me it always happen and yet we always under estimate the power of geopolitical events on forex, crypto and commodity markets. But then there is a catch, not all events hit every market with the same momentum, because every event is translated into varying impact on each stock, each forex pair and each crypto asset. For example, a missile strikes an oil pipeline in the Middle East. Within hours, oil prices surge, Bitcoin makes an unexpected move, and USD/JPY pivots.

So the bottom line, if you’re trading without understanding geopolitics, you’re flying blind. But then it is too much following zillions of technical indicators along with following geopolitical events as well.

Don't worry, in this article, I’ll break down how to integrate geopolitical awareness into your crypto and forex strategies — and why it’s your most underrated edge in 2025. As someone with experience in aviation, finance, and global market dynamics, I’ve learned that what’s happening in the world can be the difference between a winning and a losing trade.

🧩 Why Most Traders Miss the Big Picture

Most traders obsess over:

• RSI, MACD, and Fibonacci levels, moving averages, Bollinger bands and all other statistical tools, but you have to remember they are only statistic based and not reality based.

• Then there are traders who like to follow historical Technical patterns like head and shoulders, support and resistance, trend lines etc. Again these technical are historical based and only have a low probability to change hands at predetermined technical levels.

• And then there are traders who are following Trading psychology and risk-reward setups. They basically manage their portfolios for profit margins by calculated favourable risk / reward ratios.

But the markets don’t exist in a vacuum, every now and then there is an event which acts as catalyst and burst all the statistical, historical and technical barriers, and thats exactly where lies all the opportunities and of course, also remains the biggest vulnerability for traders not following geopolitical events.

So after all what moves markets?

• Wars

• Elections

• Sanctions

• Trade deals

• Natural disasters

These real-world events drive massive volatility — and opportunity — especially in the forex and crypto markets.

💡 Example: When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the ruble collapsed, BTC briefly surged, and the USD and gold dominated as a safe haven.

🌍 3 Ways Geopolitics Impacts Crypto & Forex

1️⃣ War, Conflicts and Global disasters

• Investors flee to “safe haven” assets: USD, Gold, or BTC.

• Oil and gas prices spike → affects oil-backed currencies (e.g., CAD, NOK, RUB).
• Military spending shifts GDP outlook and impacts central bank decisions.
• Markets tumble during pandemics.

2️⃣ Sanctions & Policy Changes

• Countries like Venezuela, N Korea, Iran, Afghanistan and Russia faced sharp currency drops due to sanctions.

• Crypto becomes a workaround to access capital during economic isolation.

• New regulations = new crypto winners and losers.

3️⃣ Elections & Leadership Transitions

• New leaders bring new policies on inflation, trade, and digital currency. Trump's tariff war, COVID's recession drove higher interest rates and Russia Ukraine war sent Euro free falling.

• Markets react to uncertainty — expect spikes around elections.
• Central bank autonomy can shift with political pressure.

📈 Real-World Case Studies

✅ USD/CAD vs. Oil Prices

Canada is a major oil exporter. When oil rises, the CAD often strengthens. When geopolitical tension disrupts oil supply, oil prices jump — so does USD/CAD volatility.

✅ Bitcoin During Hyperinflation

In Argentina, Turkey, and Lebanon, inflation drove people toward crypto. BTC and stablecoins offered a store of value when national currencies collapsed.

✅ Japan’s Yen and Risk-Off Sentiment

During crises, JPY usually strengthens due to Japan’s investor reputation for stability. Smart traders track risk sentiment and global news to anticipate JPY moves.

✅ Aussie Dollar moves with Gold due to Australian economy heavily relies on the gold mining industry.

🧠 Bonus: How Geopolitics Hits Crypto Differently

Crypto doesn’t just mirror forex — it reacts with its own variables:

🔹 ETH vs BTC Dynamics

While BTC often acts as a “digital gold” safe haven during geopolitical tension, ETH tends to underperform in risk-off environments due to its tech-like volatility and DeFi exposure. For example, during major escalations (e.g., Ukraine war, Red Sea attacks), BTC rallies while ETH might lag or even dip. Smart traders rotate between the two based on market sentiment.

🔹 CBDCs & DeFi Clampdowns

When countries announce progress on CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currencies) or hint at tighter crypto regulation, DeFi tokens often suffer. Expect liquidity to drain from altcoins and capital to flow into BTC or stablecoins as investors seek clarity and safety.

🔹 Sanction Loopholes via Crypto

In regions under heavy sanctions (Russia, Iran, Venezuela), crypto acts as a lifeline. But this also brings regulatory heat. Traders should monitor US or EU crackdowns on crypto platforms enabling sanction circumvention — it creates short-term volatility and long-term structural shifts in the ecosystem.

🛠️ How to embed Geopolitics in Your Trading Strategy

Here’s how to get started — even if you’re not a political analyst:

1. Set Up Global News Alerts

Use tools like:

• Investing.com

• Google News Alerts (e.g., “sanctions,” “Fed decision,” “OPEC”)

• Twitter/X lists of reliable analysts and journalists

2. Start a Market Reaction Journal

After a big event (e.g., a Fed rate hike or major conflict), log:

• What happened

• What assets reacted

• How long the reaction lasted

Pattern recognition will sharpen your instinct over time.

3. Pair Fundamentals with Technicals

Geopolitics gives you the “why.” Technicals give you the “when.”

• Example: Use trendlines and Fibonacci for timing after a news-based breakout.

4. Use AI based tools for quick analysis and recommendation, following tools can be handy:

a. Dataminr (Signal) — Free Demo, Enterprise Product

• AI-based geopolitical threat alerts

• Global intelligence signals in real-time

• Used by security & finance firms

b. GeoQuant

• Combines political science + AI to score risk

• Tracks regime stability, policy risk, geopolitical sentiment

• Free summary insights, paid advanced dashboards

c. FXStreet News + Investing.com + Twitter Geo Feeds (100% Free)

Put these together:

• Real-time forex + crypto news filters

• Use keyword alerts for “Israel”, “oil”, “China”, “election”, etc.

As a Bonus, Pair with these guys, they break geopolitical news before mainstream media:

• @IntelDoge

• @sentdefender

• @TheGeoNerd

🧠 Final Thoughts: The Trader’s Edge of 2025

In 2025, the most profitable traders won’t just be technicians — they’ll be global thinkers.

They’ll understand that:

• A strike in the Red Sea…

• A speech from the Fed…

• A presidential win in US…

…can create once-in-a-year trading opportunities.

Start thinking bigger. The charts matter — but the world moves the charts.

Pro Tip: Bookmark these tools and check them before major economic reports or political events. Being early = being profitable.

🔁 TL;DR — What You Should Take Away

✅ Geopolitics drives markets more than most traders realize. Wars, elections, sanctions, and policy changes move forex, crypto, and commodities in unpredictable but pattern-rich ways.

📊 Smart traders don’t just rely on technical indicators — they track real-world events and how they impact different assets.

🧠 Integrate geopolitics into your trading by:

• Setting up global news alerts

• Starting a market reaction journal

• Using a mix of fundamentals + technicals

• Leveraging AI-powered tools like GeoQuant, Dataminr, and FXStreet

🚀 Crypto Angle?

• Conflicts can pump BTC/ETH as safe havens.

• Sanctions and inflation push adoption in unstable economies.

• CBDC policies and election outcomes can swing DeFi tokens and stablecoins fast.

🎯 In 2025, the best traders will be part-analyst, part-global strategist.

Don’t just read charts — read the world.

🗣️ Let’s Talk

Did this change how you look at crypto or forex markets?

Drop a comment, follow, and let me know which geopolitical factor you’d like broken down next!”

💬 “Want a monthly summary of global events + which assets they could move? Drop a comment or DM — I’m thinking of launching a free Substack.”

How Geopolitics Affects Crypto & Forex: A Strategy for Smart Traders in 2025 was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.