BTC will reach $200,000 in the next 12 months.
Since bitcoin’s (BTC) fourth halving a year ago, crypto’s performance has been… muted.
BTC climbed just 60% over the past year.
That pales in comparison to the 436% surge we saw in the 12 months following the 2020 halving.
Investors are asking, “Is the crypto magic gone? Is the 4-year bitcoin cycle dead?”
The answer is yes.
But as I’ll show you, this isn’t the end of the party. It’s the beginning of a whole new era.
My prediction is BTC will soar to $200,000 in the next 12 months.
But I wouldn’t buy bitcoin. The real opportunity lies in smaller cryptos. You’ll find three of my top picks at the bottom.
ETFs broke the 4-year cycle.
They brought the big boys into crypto. Wall Street, pension funds, banks, and even 401(k) accounts can now get exposure to bitcoin with a single click.
That turned bitcoin from a niche asset into a global macro asset. Crypto is now part of the traditional financial system.
Before, Bitcoin marched to its own beat, obeying the clean rhythm of the four-year halving cycle.
Now it moves in sync with the big markets… reacting to inflation data, interest rates, tariffs, and central bank decisions.
Crypto has graduated into the big leagues.
The signs of crypto’s maturation are everywhere.
Crypto’s first decade was a wild ride marked by insane volatility, and it was largely ignored or scorned by the financial establishment as “drug money.” It was a weird, often shady corner of the financial world. Fundamentals were an afterthought.
That era is decisively over.
Presidential candidates now debate bitcoin policy on national television. The White House has appointed a “Crypto Czar.” Wall Street giants who once mocked bitcoin are now funneling billions of dollars into SEC-approved ETFs.
Stablecoins are processing more payment volumes than Mastercard or PayPal Holdings.
Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock — the world’s largest asset manager — envisions a future where every stock and bond lives on a blockchain.
Crypto’s graduation brings profound changes — the most obvious being that bitcoin’s returns are moderating.
Look at BTC’s annual performance since 2010:
(Note: 2025 YTD data reflects prices in May, 2025. Bitcoin has since moved above $100,000).
Even 2023–2024’s impressive gains pale in comparison to the wild swings of the pre-2020 era.
You can see the same trend in bitcoin’s post-halving performance.
We’re now 12 months past bitcoin’s fourth halving — historically the rocket fuel period for crypto investors.
This volatility compression isn’t a “2025 thing.” It’s part of a clear decade-long pattern, as this chart shows:
But don’t mistake maturation for exhaustion. We’re witnessing the birth of sustainable bull markets.
It’s precisely what crypto needs to unlock its next trillion dollars of value.
For bitcoin, the days of 1,000%+ per year returns are over.
But there are plenty of other cryptos with 10X potential if you know where to look.
“Where are we in the crypto cycle?” is increasingly becoming the wrong question.
Instead, ask: “Which cryptos are generating real revenue and capturing institutional flows?”
When Wall Street comes marching in with its trillions of dollars, it won’t be buying worthless memecoins.
It invests for the long term.
They’ll be looking at which cryptos are solving real-world problems using the power of blockchain. That’s where the money will flow next.
I wrote about three such cryptos recently.
They all have real business models making real money.
One of them is disrupting Google. Second one built an Airbnb for AI chips. And the third does business with big brands like Disney, Netflix, HBO, Apple, Nike, etc.
You can read about them here.
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— Stephen McBride, Chief Analyst at RiskHedge
Is the 4-year bitcoin cycle dead? was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.
